COVID-19 Risk Estimation Tool

Explore which factors have the most impact on the risk of contracting COVID-19. Instead of thinking in either-or terms, this calculator provides a multi-factor approach to estimate the risk of transmission in different environments.

This tool is for illustration purposes only.

  • We are using the study of Jones et al., BMJ 2020 as a source of the estimated risks
  • "Instead of single, fixed physical distance rules, we propose graded recommendations that better reflect the multiple factors that combine to determine risk," write authors of the study.
  • This tool does NOT constitute medical advice
  • Ask your doctor if you have questions about your health

The purpose of this tool is to demonstrate the relative level of risk in different scenarios. The activities displayed are only an abstraction. In real life, the specific factors and their impacts might be different for each situation.

I understand

COVID-19 Risk Estimation Tool
What matters the most? Move the sliders to see how different factors impact your risk of contracting the virus. This can help you when assesing various activities and environments.
Face masks:
Level of voices:
The estimated relative risk of the situation above:
medium risk of transmission
více informací
This tool is built on data presented in the Jones et al. 2020, BMJ study.
Using data available as of August 2020. The actual risk always depends on the specific situation. © Pavel Kasík

What is this?

When reading the BMJ study, I liked their approach but found the table hard to read. Especially if someone was looking for a quick insight, the table would probably not be all that useful. So I decided to "reverse-engineer" the table, figured out how they approximated and weighed the different factors. Then I put it all into JavaScript sliders, so that anyone could play with the settings and see how different variables impact the riskiness of the situation.

Disclaimer: I am a science journalist, not a medical doctor. This is not a medical advice. Let me know if you have any comments or suggestions. I hope this tool can help someone stay safe and feel better about their decisions.

Pavel Kasík